As governments navigate the challenges of globalization, safeguarding the livelihood of domestic residents, especially in the labor market, remains complex. This study aims to (1) project the unemployment rate for Saudi workers by 2030, (2) examine the relationship between the unemployment rate, gross domestic product (GDP), and population growth, and (3) identify the factors contributing to the downward resistance of the unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia's labor market. The study analyzes data from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) for the period from 1999 to 2019 using statistical tools such as SPSS 20 and AMOS. The findings show that by 2030, the unemployment rate in Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 10.99%, exceeding the target outlined in the Saudi Vision 2030 by nearly 3%. Furthermore, the study shows a negligible relationship between the unemployment rate and both population growth and GDP, with a combined effect of only 4.2% on the unemployment rate.
